- The survival of Western civilization… and the patents that could "turn you into a tycoon"
- Market likes latest emissions from the Fed… The 5 offers a caution
- Key commodity index above 300… Alan Knuckman on where it goes from here
- "A disgrace": Why Byron King isn’t celebrating the lifting of the Gulf oil-drilling ban
- New readers give us an earful… We revisit who we are and what we’re about
"Western civilization will survive," declares our technology maven Patrick Cox this morning — defying politicians, central bankers and the host of ne’er-do-wells determined to bring it down.
"We are experiencing an accelerating revolution in the sciences that will profoundly change the world. And it will make those who invest early in these disruptive technologies rich."
At 10 a.m. EDT this morning, Patrick unveiled the results of two years of research into liquid, larger-cap tech companies leading that revolution. (If you missed the e-mail or accidentally deleted it, here again are the details.)
"There has been more technological improvement in the last 50 years than in the previous 5,000," Patrick says, explaining what prompted this extensive inquiry. "Since you and I have been trained to think in linear terms, this isn’t necessarily intuitive.
"However, a careful examination of history reveals that the rate of technological change actually accelerates over time. Due to this exponential rate of improvement, we are actually only seeing the beginning of disruptive, transformational changes in technology."
Think Moore’s Law. Intel founder Gordon Moore noticed in the 1960s that the density of transistors on an integrated circuit was doubling every two years. And the cost fell in half during the same time. That’s why you have more computing power in your laptop today than a room-filling mainframe did when the Beatles were coming on the scene.
Now we’re on the verge of the next computing revolution. Except "revolution" is an understatement.
"This next breakthrough could multiply that power by 100 times or more overnight," says Ray Blanco, who’s joined Patrick on our tech team.
"In fact, it could very quickly jump to thousands of times faster than even the best laptop or desktop computer on the market today. And not just computers — cellphones, supercomputers and just about every other ‘information’ device that you can imagine. If it processes data, you could soon see it replaced by this technology.
"Imagine how fast you could read if you could start at the top of the page… the bottom of the page… in the middle of this article… and at the back and front… all at the same time," Ray continues. That’s the level of breakthrough we’re talking about. "You don’t have to be a science geek to ‘get’ what that will mean."
One company is leading the way in this field. "A few of this small company’s lucrative patents could turn into kingmakers. A few of these patents could turn you into a tycoon — even if you own just a few shares."
And there are five other breakthroughs on the same scale that Ray and Patrick can’t wait to tell you about. Your exclusive briefing is available right here.
It took a while, but stock traders have decided they like what they saw from the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.
After picking apart the opaque document the way Kremlinologists of old picked apart the pronouncements of the Soviet Politburo, they’ve sent the Dow close to 11,100.
We’re not convinced QE2 — the popular euphemism for a second round of quantitative easing — is a given. There’s a lot of talk in the minutes about going ahead with the "money printing" if the economic data the Fed reviews looks weak. But at the same time, their analysis of recent data from around the country appears to have been fairly sanguine.
For all the Fed governors’ public hand-wringing and jawboning about the lack of inflation in the system, they don’t appear to be freaked out enough to go launch what will no doubt be a vastly unpopular program — at least not yet.
The Bank of Japan, on the other hand, made it abundantly clear it’s going to prop up the stock market with its own version of QE2. BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa made some rather unseemly new noises about the Bank’s desire to buy ETFs.
Gold, in response, popped to near Monday’s record at $1,357. Then the dollar weakened a bit, pushing gold up to $1,366. "Unfortunately, it’s a race to the bottom (in the currencies), and we’re winning, in terms of the dollar," Charles Nedoss of Olympus Futures in Chicago, and one of our recommended brokers in Resource Trader Alert, told Kitco this morning.
$1,366 turns out to be a key technical level, triggering some short-covering, Nedoss explains. Now we’re up to $1,371 — a $21 gain on the day.
That’s also when Zandi sees housing prices bottom, after a new wave of foreclosures floods the market early next year. So far, housing prices have fallen an average 32% since the top in 2006. Zandi figures on 38% by the time it’s all over.
Not to be outdone, the CRB index, a broad measure of commodities, broke above 300 on the open this morning. China released customs data for September showing higher imports of commodities in general, and record imports of crude oil in particular.
The last time the CRB saw 300 was on the way down in October 2008 — when every asset class was being sold off to raise cash.
The CRB has moved up smartly, more than 15% in just six weeks, a move that "signals no relief for the uncomfortable shorts in the market," says Resource Trader Alert editor Alan Knuckman.
"What does it take to turn those shorts into buyers?" he asks. "Unfortunately for them, this failure to get clues from their surroundings and stubbornness is a positive for the markets.
"With little background in biology," Alan confesses, "I lack the expertise to know whether a frog in the pot of water lacks the intelligence to know when the burner is on. It is said that the gradual increase in temperature is ignored until it reaches a steady boil… For now this means HOT COMMODITIES!!!"
And for his readers, it’s meant nine winners in a row going back to July 13. Imagine closing nine plays with an average gain of 119.9% in the space of just three months. If you want in, only a few hours remain to grab a Resource Trader Alert membership for just half of the regular fee. The offer expires when the clock strikes midnight.
[Ed. Note: "Does Resource Trader Alert provide buy/sell limits?" a reader asked last night. Absolutely. In fact, Alan Knuckman makes it so simple that every buy and sell alert includes the exact words you can read aloud to your broker, so the order is executed just as intended. Really, it doesn’t get any easier than this. Again, the deadline for a 50% discounted membership is tonight at midnight.]
"It’s a disgrace," begins an e-mail from Byron King, reacting to one of yesterday’s big news stories. "Three weeks before the November elections, with Democrats trailing badly in the polls, the Obama administration holds a press conference announcing that it’s lifting the offshore drilling moratorium.
"Yep. The moratorium is lifted… as long, that is, as operators follow a bunch of regulations that have not been written, published, reviewed, subjected to scrutiny, challenged via administrative process or challenged in court where appropriate.
"And as long as all the equipment gets inspected by a VERY small cadre of federal employees who haven’t been trained — if not yet hired.
"And as long as you can obtain all the necessary permits, which will trickle out of the federal bureaucracy like molasses in January, at best.
"This ‘lifting’ thing is nothing but a political stunt," concludes Byron, "trying to put a happy face on the dire, disastrous results of the previous political stunt, which was the precipitous imposition of the moratorium in the first place…"
Turning to another news item on Byron’s beat: Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has begun a visit to Lebanon that most news reports describe as "provocative."
Viewed in the context of Israel’s relations with its neighbors, it is provocative. But it’s not the real story.
Ahmadinejad is in Lebanon to lend his support to Hezbollah, the political, social and militant movement whose stronghold is in southern Lebanon, on Israel’s border. But the story isn’t about Hezbollah and Israel. It’s about Hezbollah and the other factions in Lebanon.
Lebanon’s Muslim community is split 50-50 between Shia and Sunni — the two great factions of Islam who’ve been fighting since the seventh century. Ahmadinejad sees Iran as the leader of Shia Islam, so visiting Lebanon to lend his support to Hezbollah — a Shia movement — is bound to offend the Sunnis.
That may be by design. Lebanon is shaping up to be another front in the "New War" Byron sees shaping up in the Middle East. It has little to do with Israel or nukes… but everything to do with oil. And when it blows up, oil prices will return to triple digits overnight. Byron’s developed an entire investing strategy to protect your wealth in this scenario. Check it out here.
"Monsieur Addison Wiggin," begins our first foray into the mailbag, "I should be washing your mouth with soap you arrogant American asshole."
He is referring to our passing mention yesterday of average wealth per adult, and our passing comment, "Even those cheese-eating surrender monkeys in France are better off than Americans."
"Being French-born but an American citizen for 30 years," the reader says, "I still take exception to you calling French people ‘surrender monkeys.’
"Where the hell do you get the balls to use this epithet when talking about the same people who helped you fight the Redcoats and saved your (at the time) puny revolutionary asses? Read your history, when you helped France during WW1 and 2 you were only returning the favor. Without us you would not exist as a piss-poor nation (pardon my French, if you please).
"Plus, we have a higher net worth than you people. Are you proud of yourselves? How dare you call any people from any nation names like these. A LITTLE RESPECT, S’IL VOUS PLAIT."
The 5: Mon dieu! You’re right. We were taking very subtle aim at our ignorant American friends, but see that we’ve hit another, closer, target altogether. We do respect your command of the pejorative in our less elegant langue, however.
"I just recently subscribed," a reader tells The 5, "and have enjoyed reading most of the reports. But I must tell you, and I’m sure you have heard this before, that it is really frustrating to read all the ‘teasers’ you send me, only to find I have to pay anywhere from $900 to $2,000 to get the REAL information — the name of the stocks or investments that you are sure will make me a lot of money."
"And now, the big announcement at 10 a.m. on Wed, morning — is that going to be another 15 to 30 minutes of my time reading the ‘report’ only to find out I have to spend a lot of money to get the important information?? If so, I will tell you right now, that you can count me out!
"I thought this was going to help me with my investments. But I am sorry to say I don’t have much faith in your operation!"
The 5: As my 7-year-old would say: "Aww, man!" Give us a chance. Our hearts are in the right place.
"All I get from you," writes another, piling on, "is how I could have made a bundle if I had done what you told me to do. I know I must be missing something, but what? When are you going to give me specific stock recommendations?"
The 5: If you’re new to our publication, here’s a basic rule of thumb: the analysis you receive in The 5 is free; our advice and specific recommendations… you have to pay for. That’s how we remain independent from Wall Street and avoid kowtowing to advertisers — each a death knell for objectivity and accuracy in their own subtle way. That said,
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If you’re looking for additional discounts on recommendations you haven’t yet paid for, we urge you to call John Wilkinson at 1-800-361-7662. I’m confident there is a "bundle" offer that will suit your investment strategy and save you money.
In fact, depending on what publications you have already subscribed to, the discount already on your account could be substantial. And quite gratifying. John will walk you through it… give him a call.
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Thanks for reading,
Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast
P.S.: Again, if you missed Patrick’s breakthrough technology presentation this morning at 10 a.m. EST, here it is.