Dave Gonigam – February 16, 2012
- “Slant drilling” 1990… “Complex oil smuggling network” 2012… Parallel paths on the road to war in the Gulf
- Breaking news on the nutraceutical front and your chance to take advantage
- Sunny economic numbers, but Dan Amoss finds a cloud that points to more margin squeeze
- China’s new golden distinction, and an update on the gold holdings of top U.S hedgies
- Readers write: Revenue-hungry governments abetted by private firms, the CNG solution and a broken dollar hypothesis?
If history doesn’t repeat, but rather rhymes, as Mark Twain said… then we recognize some doggerel this morning in the latest news from the Persian Gulf.
“Iran has been systematically plundering large amounts of oil from southern Iraq for years,” according to a UPI story that cites a report from Stratfor, the U.S.-based private intelligence outfit.
Through a “complex oil smuggling network,” the Islamic Republic is able to pull in $20 million per day in oil revenue that short-circuits Western sanctions, the report claims.
If there’s something about this that sounds familiar, recall one of Saddam Hussein’s justifications for Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 was Kuwait was stealing Iraq’s oil. The Kuwaitis, he said, resorted to “slant drilling,” whereby its wells entered the earth on Kuwaiti territory, but crossed the border underground.
“There’s an element of Iraqi propaganda here,” observes our Byron King — who takes note of every development that hinges on his New War scenario — “but I don’t doubt that Iran is somehow sucking Iraqi oil into is pipeline system.”
“I just saw another report,” says Vancouver favorite Doug Casey, “proclaiming that Iran is likely to attack the U.S., which is about as absurd as the allegations Bush made about Iraq bombing the U.S., when he fomented that invasion.”
Hmmm… Another rhyme.
“It’s starting to look rather serious at this point,” Mr. Casey continues, “so I do think the odds favor actual fighting in the not-too-distant future. We’re dealing with criminal personalities on both sides, and criminals are basically very stupid — meaning they have an unwitting tendency to self-destruction.”
Doug’s investment guidance for this scenario is similar to his guidance for other man-made disasters: gold and silver to safeguard your wealth, gold stocks if you’re feeling speculative. “And diversify your holdings internationally. You can never tell when the government of your home country will have a psychotic break.”
Aside from spelling out a war scenario, Byron King’s New War report also presents an investment strategy to help you protect and grow your portfolio during the tumult — starting with three market moves you can make right away. Here’s where to get started.
U.S. stocks are recovering some of yesterday’s losses. The Dow is back above 12,800.
The Nasdaq is again within striking distance of its post-2000 high set only two days ago… although much of that index’s strength has been driven by one stock, Apple.
“Stock indexes, looking toppy, may now be starting to slip,” Options Hotline editor Steve Sarnoff wrote his readers after yesterday’s close. “Negative character of price action in Apple shares indicates gravity may kick in. If Apple shares fall toward earth, markets would feel a thud.”
“Euro weakness may also keep pressure on stocks and commodities over the weeks ahead. We shall see how much of a stand bulls can make.”
“Clearly, he’s not a shill for any old thing that comes down the pike,” reads an email this morning from a member of our research team.
Once again, we’re having trouble keeping up with developments involving the anti-inflammatory “nutraceutical” that’s had the attention of Patrick Cox for the last year. This month alone, we’ve seen…
- Positive results from the first human trials: lower levels of CRP, the gunk in your blood linked to inflammation
- A distribution agreement with one of the nation’s top vitamin retailers
- The final stage of a patent-infringement lawsuit that could deliver a big cash infusion.
Now comes word of a remarkable celebrity endorsement. Out of respect to Patrick’s existing readers, we won’t reveal his name. But he’s agreed to be the product’s “brand ambassador.”
He’s perhaps the most popular golfer of the last 20 years — um, well, now that Tiger Woods has fallen from grace. He darn near gave up playing because of chronic injury.
Fox Sports has picked up the story. “I don’t even know how to explain it,” this legend said yesterday, “I just feel much better.” And that’s after taking it for only two months. “Whether it’s in my fingers, my shoulders, my back,” the inflammation is gone.
He felt so strongly he reached out to the company.
So what’s it to you? This: Our discount-membership offer in Breakthrough Technology Alert expired Tuesday at midnight. But given this new development — sure to be another catalyst under the share price as time goes on — we want to give you one more chance.
This isn’t something we ordinarily do. And in fairness to the folks who signed up before the previous deadline, the discount isn’t quite as steep… but it’s still a very attractive offer, more than 50% off the regular membership fee. Be advised: It comes off the table at midnight tomorrow night.
Traders are evaluating a slew of numbers today…
- First-time unemployment claims: Down again last week to 348,000 — the lowest since March 2008. The four-week average has now declined 10 of the last 11 weeks
- Housing starts: Up 1.5% in January. Permits — a better indicator of future trends — edged up 0.7%
- Producer prices: Nearly flat in January, up 0.1%. Food and energy prices actually fell at the wholesale level, but that was offset by rises in things like pharmaceuticals, light trucks and tobacco. (Doesn’t bode well for aging smokers who need a new pickup.) The year-over-year increase is still 4.1%
- Mid-Atlantic manufacturing: Up this month, according to the Philadelphia Fed survey, which jibes with the Empire State survey of activity in New York state yesterday.
However, a worrisome gap shows up in the Philly Fed survey — between the prices manufacturers are paying for their raw goods and the prices they’re receiving for finished product.
“Lots of companies I follow mention the ‘need’ to get price increases,” says our short strategist Dan Amoss, “as if they’re entitled to them simply because their costs rose. Yet many companies simply distribute or retail goods that are available elsewhere, which limits their ability to push through higher costs.”
Case in point, Beacon Roofing Supply, a distributor of roofing shingles. “Its ability to push through price increases depends on demand from roofing contractors, which depends (mostly) on demand for re-roofing investments. With fewer households in a positive home equity position, they have neither the desire nor the ability to replace old roofing shingles.”
Meanwhile, its costs are going up: Shingle maker Owens Corning is pushing through a price increase at the end of this month.
Dan’s readers already collected a 131% gain playing put options on Beacon Roofing last year. For similar opportunities to profit from companies whose margins are getting squeezed, give this a look.
Precious metals have surrendered all their gains of the last 24 hours. At last check, the bid on gold was $1,720. Silver is back to $33.10.
China’s already the world’s largest producer of gold… and by the end of 2012, it should be the world’s biggest user too.
The World Gold Council projects China will overtake India this year as the No. 1 gold consumer. No wonder: As we noted a few days ago, China’s gold imports via Hong Kong tripled last year.
A collapse in the value of the Indian rupee is another factor: “You’ve effectively seen foreign direct investment dry up in India,” says the council’s Marcus Grubb. “That feeds down into the economy with slowing growth and less liquidity available. That really impacts the rupee, and gold looks horribly expensive to local consumers.”
Turns out the scuttlebutt about George Soros getting back into gold was right — well, up to a point.
According to his latest 13F filing with the SEC, Soros grew his stake in the GLD ETF 77% during the fourth quarter. Still, his total holdings remain a paltry 85,450 shares — a far cry from the 4.67 million he held a year ago.
John Paulson cut his stake for the second straight quarter, from 20.3 million to 17.3 million shares. Paulson remains GLD’s biggest holder.
“This is somewhat in line with your item yesterday about private prisons,” a reader writes. “I recently received a photo-ticket in the mail from Fife, Wash., police (actually, their contractor) for failing to stop at a red light prior to making a right turn.”
“This really teed me off, as the difference between a full stop and what I did is negligible. So I decided to do a little research and sent in a FOIA request and got data that knocked me off of my chair. These cameras are supposed to be installed for safety reasons so I was a bit miffed when I was told there were NO data about accidents at this particular intersection before or after the cameras were installed (how did they know there was a safety issue?).”
“So naturally, I started looking at the revenue side (they kept that data). This is from ONE camera on ONE leg of an intersection. They average $5M/yr from infractions on this camera.”
“These cameras have NOTHING to do with safety and everything to do with revenue, but your gutless, lying council members will not confirm this but continue to lie about the need for these cameras to reduce accidents. I have heard that there are actual studies that show the cameras tend to cause more accidents then they prevent.”
“So if you are wondering how municipal budgets are being balanced, we now know!!”
The 5: Another reader sends along a story from Davenport, Iowa — where city fathers are looking at withholding state tax refunds to recoup unpaid fines resulting from violations caught by traffic cameras. And yes, the cameras are operated by a private vendor that gets a 40% cut of the revenue.
As Addison has been pointing out for months, a society consumed by debt first begins to crumble on the local level. If you haven’t taken steps to prepare yourself, best get moving now.
“If the Obama administration is sincere about American energy independence and curtailing CO2 (and other) emissions, they would promote CNG/LNG power plants and autos,” writes a reader determined to carry on our discussion of compressed natural gas.
“Like your Texas reader, I experienced the technology and efficiency of LNG/CNG decades ago. I worked in a RV plant in Elkhart, Ind., in the late ’70s that outfitted motor homes with LNG heaters and stoves. The owner converted his fleets of company and personal vehicles to LNG combustion and filled their tanks at the plant, with substantial reduced fuel costs and environmental impact (no leaded gas or catalytic converters).”
“Similarly, my uncles have converted all their gas-powered farm vehicles to LNG in the same period, primarily to avoid highway taxes on gasoline without having to validate on/off-highway use to the IRS.”
“Maybe Byron can muster some venture capital and be a part of the American renaissance he is predicting? Let’s hope so! NG is the perfect ‘bridge’ fuel to get us to the nano or (safe) nuclear future.”
The 5: Maybe in the future. Right now we keep him busy enough tracking down companies already trading publicly that are set to grab the biggest gains from the renewal he sees coming. He’s eager to tell you all about them right here.
“Regarding the hypothesis that the U.S. is really defending the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency,” a reader writes: “I was under the impression that China and Venezuela had already dropped the dollar for their petroleum dealings… no?”
“The hypothesis works until it doesn’t?”
The 5: Um… we don’t recall saying that a government’s desire to escape the dollar was a guarantee of regime change. Only that there’s precedent with Saddam and Gaddafi.
China and Venezuela, China and Russia, Russia and Iran — they’re all trading in each other’s currencies and bypassing the dollar. Even with a military budget equal to all the other nations in the world, Washington can’t invade ’em all…
Cheers,
Dave Gonigam
The 5 Min. Forecast
P.S. One more gentle reminder: Due to breaking news, we’re extending the discounted membership offer on Patrick Cox’s Breakthrough Technology Alert through midnight tomorrow.