November 27, 2012
- A new source of conflict between the U.S. and China… how one country is playing both sides against each other… and the possibility of a shooting war in less than 20 years
- Designating the “fiscal cliff” as a national monument: Your chance to submit nominations for the best site
- Victory… for now: An update on the IDs that track high school students’ every move
- A lament for a lost America… a taxing problem versus a spending problem… and more!
It’s come to this: China might end up rescuing Americans from a secret treaty that threatens Internet freedom and national sovereignty.
Four months ago, The 5 tipped you off to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) — one of those “free trade agreements” with hundreds of pages of devilish details. The United States is negotiating with a motley assortment of countries — New Zealand, Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Chile and Peru. Canada and Mexico joined up in June.
The negotiations are strictly hush-hush… but a draft proposal by the U.S. negotiators leaked earlier this year. Among the gems included…
- $150,000 fines and jail time for copyright infringement – which would be easy to violate
- Foreign multinational corporations exempted from U.S. laws
- Capital controls to keep your wealth trapped inside the U.S.
A new round of TPP negotiations begins next Monday in Auckland, New Zealand.
As it turns out, China is forming its own trade bloc… and New Zealand, a founding TPP member even before the U.S. got involved, is showing interest.
This bloc is called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). “You never know how these things are going to play out,” said New Zealand Prime Minister John Key, “so it is always possible that TPP falters and then RECP becomes the significant trade agreement.”
To add insult to injury, Mr. Key said this on the sidelines of a summit last week in Cambodia, where President Obama was on hand. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard also declared herself open to the RCEP.
The countries negotiating the RCEP are China, India, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. To be sure, there’s no guarantee the talks will work out — a longtime dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku Islands is heating up again.
Still, the battle lines between the U.S. and China are now drawn. Almost no one in the United States is talking about it. The Washington Analysis and Assessment Service is one of the few exceptions: “This is another example of the emerging trend in U.S.-China relations where the two countries position themselves — whether consciously or by coincidence — as competitors, rather than as partners.”
In New Zealand, the talk is more bold: “[Prime Minister] Key needs a reality check,” says TPP critic and Auckland University law professor Jane Kelsey, “if he really believes New Zealand can remain best friends with both sides in the escalating face-off between the U.S. and China over the ‘most significant free trade and investment deal ever.'”
We bring up the subject today in the context of a long-range forecast — very long range — that Addison introduced in Apogee Advisory a year ago: The likelihood of a shooting war between the United States and China by 2030.
There are new developments — far from the backyards of either the U.S. or China — that put such a conflict “right on schedule.” Addison has an update in the current issue — along with guidance to guard your 401(k) plan from the possibility of confiscation. And our 2013 forecast issue — with six surprises for the coming year and beyond — is in the pipeline. Not a subscriber yet? You can become one here.
Stocks have carried over yesterday’s slump into today. At last check, the Dow was down to 12,920… but the S&P is holding the line on 1,400.
Overnight, eurozone leaders agreed (again) to solve the Greek debt problem by larding down Greece with still more debt. The numbers out this morning had nothing horrible: Durable goods orders were flat in October. Case-Shiller’s home price index is up 3% year over year.
“Stocks Slump on Fiscal Cliff Concerns,” reads a headline at CNN Money, capturing the financial media zeitgeist.
Congress is back in session this week, so once again the “fiscal cliff” is trotted out as a handy explanation for every move in the market. Market up? Must be because the White House and Congress are coming to terms. Market down? Too many issues separating the two sides.
“It’s like coming back to earth in terms of reality sinking back in,” says PNC Asset Management’s Bill Stone, channeling conventional wisdom. “We started this with a lot of good feelings and nice words, but coming to a real deal is a lot harder.”
MarketWatch, God help us, has a countdown clock on its homepage.
All the media blather is having an effect, if public opinion polls are to be believed: Two-thirds of people questioned in a CNN/ORC International survey believe “the U.S. would face a crisis or major problems if the country went off the ‘fiscal cliff’ at the end of the year.”
“You should organize a petition to have the fiscal cliff declared to be a national monument,” a reader suggests.
“You can start by having a photo contest to locate and show the geologic structure. There is a lot of potential here. Byron King is the person to find it, and maybe you could have an IPO. I think it would be more fun than ‘the War on The 5.'”
Anything would be more fun than that… but we digress.
Byron says the idea reminds him of the Head-Smashed-in Buffalo Jump. That’s its actual name. “Due to their excellent understanding of topography and bison behavior, native people killed bison by chasing them over a precipice,” says one authoritative description of the place. “They then carved up the carcasses in the camp set up below the cliffs.”
Not the fiscal cliff…Alas, it’s in Canada — near Lethbridge, Alberta.
Precious metals are giving up a bit of ground as the dollar strengthens. Gold is at $1,745, silver at $34.08.
“You have to take the Mark of the Beast,” Steve Hernandez said during a protest outside his daughter’s school. “This is just indoctrination of this. This is not the Mark of the Beast, but this is how it starts.”
As an update to the “War on You” file, we originally made a mention in mid-October of two schools in San Antonio introducing “optionally mandatory” photo ID cards with RFID tracking chips for all students.
Andrea Hernandez of Northside Independent School District (NISD) refused to wear the ID badge, citing religious reasons. In response, the school suspended her to other non-RFID schools in the district until she was willing to comply.
“There is something fundamentally disturbing about this school district’s insistence on steamrolling students into complying with programs that have nothing whatsoever to do with academic priorities and everything to do with fattening school coffers,” said John Whitehead of Rutherford Institute in an interview with Wired.
Whitehead, Andrea’s outspoken attorney, says the school has no legal grounds to make Andrea wear the Smart ID and is leading the case against the RFID tags.
Apparently, this case doesn’t concern just Mr. Whitehead and his client…
“We’ve gotten so much press attention around the country,” Mr. Whitehead said, “the whole country’s watching this.
“This is the pilot program and the pilot case, so it’s very important.”
And since Andrea’s suspension, the school has caught a lot of heat about the true intentions of the program.
“These ‘student locator’ programs,” says Whitehead, “are ultimately aimed at getting students used to living in a total surveillance state where there will be no privacy, and wherever you go and whatever you text or email with be watched by the government.”
The schools aren’t “putting these chips on to protect kids,” Whitehead argues. “They’re doing it to make money.”
To the dismay of the school’s coffer holders, it seems the courts agree. Last week, a judge made a temporary restraining order against the school permanent, overruling their decision and allowing Hernandez to return to school RFID-free.
“Usually, when judges rule on temporary restraining orders in your favor, that’s how they’re leaning,” Whitehead explains. “It would take quite a bit of some kind of evidence on constitutional arguments, which the school does not have.”
The judge’s final ruling is expected to be released tomorrow. Alas a victory for Hernandez will only slow, not stop, the advance of an American police state. Consider a few defensive measures here.
“I just wanted to let you know how insightful and unfortunately true Jeffrey Tucker’s article was regarding the lack of the state of freedom in the USA today,” reads one of several emails thanking us for Jeffrey’s review of The Idea of America.
“I cringe and get very upset over what one has to go through now to travel. I have served my country, my father was career military retired and I see the great differences that have occurred since traveling with him as a child.
“As a medical provider, I also refuse to go through the body scans. The government states that it is safe to do. The American Radiology Association doesn’t quite agree. Of course, our government has never lied to the American people, right? The cumulative effect of the radiation in the scanners is really unknown. I have read also that the TSA agents that work closely with the scanners, etc., have already began filing claims for disability due to cancer. Whether they will be established is unknown.
“I would caution anyone to avoid the body scanners when traveling, but especially anyone who is a survivor from any form of cancer. I would like you to keep telling Americans the truth. Please keep trying to open their eyes to what really is happening in America.”
“Kudos for the essays, my friends,” writes another. “America has become one massive FEMA camp. You feel the cameras peering down on you.”
“I have mixed feelings on the ‘tax the rich more’ concept and can see valid points on both sides,” writes a reader continuing a thread from last week.
“I have a question that I hope you can clear up. One of your readers states the wealthy are the ones who create the jobs. So if taxes on the wealthy are considered ‘lowish’ now, especially as compared with history (e.g., everyone’s freaking out that the Bush cuts will expire), why aren’t there tons of jobs being created? Maybe now everyone’s waiting for the fiscal cliff resolution, but four years ago that wasn’t an issue, and instead of jobs, we got a crash. The tax rates have stayed low for a while, but we’re still bleeding jobs.
“So where’s the proof that a bunch of new jobs would be created if the tax rates stayed the same or were reduced? And tax rates in the ‘socialist’ countries lots of people like to demonize (Sweden, etc.) are high, but their economies and general competitiveness are stronger than the USA’s, as you have pointed out numerous times.
“Seems like people on both sides of the argument are picking on tax rates as the key to solving all of our problems, when it’s just one factor and likely a pretty small one at that given what’s actually happening in the world. Seems to me we should be focusing more on getting the spending side under control. Would appreciate your thoughts on this.”
The 5: In the words of John McLaughlin, you have lurched uncontrollably into the truth.
As Addison pointed out last year, wiping out the 2001-03 tax cuts on incomes above $250,000 would generate all of $70 billion per year. Those are Congressional Budget Office figures.
In a $3.6 trillion federal budget, that would fund the government for one week.
Regards,
Dave Gonigam
The 5 Min. Forecast
P.S. Only three days remain in which you can sign up for our “loyalty rewards” program. It’s our way of saying thanks for being an existing subscriber to one of our services. For a comprehensive rundown of the benefits and privileges you get with our loyalty rewards, give this a look.