Forecasting of any kind is dubious. Economic forecasting can be downright treacherous. Even if we’re right about the big trends, get the timing wrong and you want our heads.
It’s your money, after all.
Still, this is the metier we’ve chosen to build our careers in. And so we forge on. We try to accentuate the calls we made correctly. And take the heat for the ones we didn’t.
Between The 5 Min Forecast and The Daily Reckoning, Agora Financial has been publishing independent market forecasts for you since 1999. If you’ll oblige us, here a few that we got right:
- 2002: The news that gold was “set to soar” hit your inbox. Gold, we forecast, would be (and was) the best investment of the next 10 years
- 2003: We called the mortgage finance bubble, noting that it was being fueled by cheap credit and massive dollar creation by the Fed… a full five years before it popped
- 2008: “Home prices may fall 43%,” we predicted at a time when the “greatest” minds in economics were clamoring they wouldn’t fall by more than 15% nationally.
Frankly, there are too many to list here. Since 2008, our forecasts have been featured by The New York Times, The Washington Post, Bloomberg, Fox Business and many other outlets. With good reason, too.
We accurately predicted that oil prices were headed to all-time highs when crude was just $55 per barrel. We beat the mainstream by four years, forecasting the ascent of biotechnology as well as personalized and regenerative medicine. We even called the advent of 3-D printing when you could still fit the whole “maker movement” in your living room.
Over the years, we’ve had the distinct pleasure to work with some of the best minds in publishing, mining, oil services, finance, banking, genetics, economics and even… (gasp!) government. Among the list of luminaries are a Harvard-trained geologist, a self-made billionaire, a Pulitzer Prize-nominated journalist, one of the world’s leading bond experts and an ex-banker to the presidents.
Now we’ve got a special new writer and thinker to add to that auspicious list — one we’re confident you’ll agree is a good choice…
Before we begin, recall we’re still holding out for one of our most audacious forecasts. This is the “big one.” In 2011, we dubbed it the “Mother of All Financial Bubbles.” And you’ll have to agree… on the “big one,” timing really, really matters.
It’s so important that during the mysterious “disappearance” of Dave Gonigam, we’re hijacking your 5 Min. Forecast. Project code name: Prophecy 2015.
If you’re a regular reader here at The 5, you know that for six years, we’ve been detailing all the ways in which the Panic of ’08 was, ahem, papered over. The systemic faults that were deemed “too big to fail” then haven’t been addressed to this day.
In fact, they’ve been made much, much worse. The Fed, Bernanke and Yellen after him, the U.S. Treasury and Wall Street banks didn’t fold after 2008 wiped out $13 trillion of middle-class wealth… they doubled down!
The six largest banks — the powder kegs at the center of financial crises — are 37% larger than they were in 2008.
The popping of the “Mother of All Financial Bubbles” today would — again — take the average investor and family by surprise.
“Most people will be caught completely off guard,” we wrote in 2011. “They’ll be left looking in the rearview mirror, wondering why their retirement accounts have been cut in half. They’ll be angry when they lose their jobs.
“They’ll wonder why their money no longer buys things at reasonable prices… Governments around the world will be called into question. Certain currencies will die. A lot of people will lose a lot of money. Social unrest will occur — maybe outside your front door.”
Some months ago, we acknowledged that the bubble had more inflating to do before it burst. The bubble’s surface area has grown accordingly.
Recently, however, we’ve received information from someone inside government and Wall Street. Predictions based on events even we hadn’t noticed. Signs few people bother to stop and notice yet are flashing that the Mother of All Financial bubbles is already popping… faster than we ever anticipated. You can feel it brewing in the daily headlines…
“Dollar Slips Against the Euro After U.S. CPI Data Hints at Dovish Fed” — Reuters“U.S. Consumer Credit Soars in July With Biggest Gain Since ’01” — Reuters
“PBOC Injects $81 Billion Into China’s Top 5 Banks” — Seeking Alpha
“Russia Promises Swift Retaliation to U.S. Sanctions” — Reuters
…but it’s hard to see how the pieces fit together. There’s a story here that’s not being told. Hence our new project’s code name: Prophecy 2015.
We knew we needed a source who has been at the center of geopolitics, capital markets and risk forecasting. Someone who knows how the machine works as a whole… and is smart enough to see what the “experts” can’t.
After an extensive search… talking to industry insiders, gurus and other contacts we’ve made through our 20-year career… we’ve found perhaps the only man on the planet with the right mix of Wall Street and Washington experience; the intellect and curiosity to pull disparate ideas together; and the contacts to get to talk to policymakers at the highest level. He’s the right man to help forecast the next crisis accurately… and on time.
Fair warning: Some of the things he’s told us about over pan-seared scallops and pinot grigio will blow your mind. For example…
- A Chinese oil price benchmark denominated in yuan. It would destroy the dollar’s “petrodollar status”…
- The 10-year plan, known to all major governments, that outlines how and with what the dollar will be replaced…
- An unsuspected terrorist attack on the level of Sept. 11 that could tank the markets…
- Violent money riots fueled by extreme income inequality that could cause panic selling…
- Successful hacker attacks on major U.S. financial exchanges…
Our contact has a resume like you wouldn’t believe.
The man behind Code Name: Prophecy 2015
He is on a first-name basis with central bankers at the Fed…
He’s been a crucial player in secret strategy sessions that have led to huge shifts in government policy over the last 10 years…
He is intimately familiar with covert operations around the globe…
He’s worked at the world’s largest banks, navigating them through one of financial history’s most dire moments.
He has seen the “inside” of government machinations.
And after much prodding… at long last… he is ready to talk to you about something very important. We’re going to reveal his story… and what it could mean for you… right here. More to come tomorrow.
In the meantime, I’d like to invite you to make a “prophecy” of your own.
Let me give you a nutty one to get the juices flowing: We have one small-cap analyst on staff who thinks the “gloom and doomers” have run amok and what’s really going to happen is Dow 57,000! How’s that for a forecast? He’s busy making his case, as we speak. He’ll have to make a strong one…
What do you think is going to happen before the end of 2014? By this time in 2015? Any thoughts on the debt, the dollar or gold!? NASDAQ, ISIS, SDRs, NSA, QE4? Moody’s, Fitch or the Fed? The mid-term election? Hillary? Ran Paul? Miley Cyrus?
Sincerely,
Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast
P.S. We’ve been proud of our track record. So much so we made a little movie to extol it. If you haven’t been to the Agora Financial home page in a while, take a look:
