- Four days away: A profitable advance in the battle against Parkinson’s
- Gold breaks out… but is it the breakout?
- Unpacking the “lowest deficit since 2007” nonsense
- Online gambling: Illegal in the U.S., explosive growth elsewhere
- The downside to file-and-suspend… OPEC-Russia cooperation?… a boomer’s startup success story (and it’s recent)… and more!
“Imagine a package of magic seeds,” says Aaron Gentzler of our research team. “Depending on where you planted them, they could grow into carrots, peppers, corn or any other kind of produce.”
Now imagine human cells that work the same way. Starting out in a petri dish, they could develop into skin cells… or liver cells, or blood cells or brain cells.
It’s a good analogy… and it could propel a tiny off-exchange investment opportunity 10-fold, starting four days from now.
If we’ve raised your skeptical antennae… we’re aware of the objections about stem cells. Even the ones that don’t require destroying human embryos, and that’s what we’re talking about today.
It’s not easy to get a stem cell to “differentiate” into the cells a researcher wants — pancreas cells, kidney cells, even skin. “The problem is purity, because stem cells tend to retain a ‘memory’ of what they have been,” explains Breakthrough Technology Alert editor Stephen Petranek.
But researchers at one company have found a way around that. And they’ve patented it. “They can take what is called a human pluripotent stem cell, one that can become anything, and stimulate it so it finally morphs into specific cells.”
Research with monkeys has already proven promising. Last month in The 5, Stephen raved about two videos of a monkey. In the first, the monkey was afflicted with Parkinson’s disease symptoms so bad he could barely hold a banana. In the second, after treatment, the monkey not only peeled his banana with ease, but he was jumping around his cage.
As a reminder, more than a million Americans deal with Parkinson’s — the tremors, the stiffness and the stark reality that existing medicines become less effective as time wears on.
Next Tuesday, this revolutionary stem cell treatment takes a huge step out of the lab… and toward lasting relief for Parkinson’s sufferers.
Researchers from the company will deliver a presentation on their preclinical work at a conference where leading scientists from around the world will be gathered. The work demonstrates the treatment is both safe and effective. More important, it will clear the way for approval of a clinical trial by Australia’s version of the FDA.
As we explained last month, this Phase 1/2a trial in Australia will be a speedy affair. It will take only weeks to enroll patients, because the company has already met with an ethical board that will watch over the study.
First results should take only six months to come in, and if they’re successful, the company will ask the FDA to launch a Phase 2b study in the United States. If that’s successful, the FDA might choose to skip Phase 3 and let the company bring the treatment to market.
The FDA might well rush this treatment through the pipeline because it holds the promise of a cure, not just a treatment.
Mere treatments have already proven very profitable — Amicus Therapeutics, up 390% in recent months, has drug still in preclinical trials. And Avanir Pharma is up 1,100% with a treatment in Phase 2 trials.
Now imagine the profit potential for a genuine cure… and how those profits might begin building as soon as word emerges from this medical conference on Tuesday.
The company doesn’t trade on a major exchange. But it’s still possible to secure access to shares without being an accredited investor; you don’t need an income of $200,000 or a net worth of $1 million.
If you want to act ahead of the news, you can find much more detail right here.
Stocks are treading water this morning after going on a tear late yesterday. At last check, the Dow rests at 17,158, the S&P 500 at 2,026. Treasury yields remain muted — the 10-year a hair above 2%.
The one big economic number of the morning is a disappointment but not a surprise: Industrial production, a number that incorporates manufacturing, mining and utility output, slipped 0.2% in September.
Gold is holding on to most of its gains this week at $1,183. If that sticks by today’s close, gold will have broken through resistance at $1,165-1,170.
But Greg Guenther of our trading desk — and we remind you he called gold’s bear market in February 2013 when the price was still $1,650 — isn’t exactly ready to back up the truck.
“Gold has posted an impressive rally since early August,” he acknowledges. “And lately, weakness in the U.S. dollar has helped add fuel to the fire.
“But we need to look at this rally through long-term trends. And what you’ll quickly notice is that what gold is experiencing so far is a bear market rally. Take a look:
“While I think gold could see a move to $1,200-1,250, we don’t know if this is the long-term bottom everyone’s been searching for just yet.”
For the record: The federal budget deficit for fiscal 2015 clocked in at $439 billion. Thanks to growing revenue, it’s the lowest since 2007. Hooray?
Of course, that’s only the “official” number, and if you’ve read us for a long time, you know that like many government numbers, it’s bogus.
The real “tell” is how much the national debt grows during the fiscal year. Checking that number, we see —
Oh, that’s right, Uncle Sam has been resorting to accounting shenanigans the last six months to stay under the debt ceiling — the sort that if you ever tried in the private sector would send you to the pokey for a long time.
Thus, the national debt has held steady around $18.15 trillion since March. So we don’t even know the real figure. And if you missed it yesterday, the Treasury Department is projecting a potential default by Nov. 3.
The daily fantasy-sports websites just got sacked by the state of Nevada.
Our investment director Chris Mayer told us about these sites a month ago — DraftKings and FanDuel are both privately held firms worth about $1 billion each.
But Nevada — looking out for its existing gaming industry and the $1 billion in state revenue it generates each year — ordered them yesterday to get gaming licenses if they want Nevadans to take part.
It’s been a rough month for the fantasy sports sites — allegations of “insider trading,” chatter in Washington about imposing new regulations.
But fantasy sports are only the most visible aspect of online gambling… and from Chris’ perspective, it’s hardly the most profitable.
“I like this chart because you’d be hard-pressed to find the 2008 crisis if I removed the dates across the bottom,” says Chris. “Gambling revenues just plowed right through all those macro troubles and kept going.”
The chart shows you the global gambling “gross win.” Think of it as equivalent to sales for a casino.
“What’s even more interesting,” says Chris, “is if you focus just on online gaming. Land-based casinos have grown at about a 5% clip over the last decade. But online gaming has grown at triple that rate, about 15%.
“This shouldn’t surprise you. We’ve seen the same story play out in other industries: online retailers taking business from land-based ones. Online music and streaming sites eating into DVD and CD sales. Uber eating into the taxi industry’s take. The list goes on and on.”
And still, online gaming represents only 8% of the overall industry — up from 3% a decade ago.
“This is a larger trend affecting all businesses,” Chris reminds us. “Is it unreasonable to think that someday e-commerce might make up 30% of the total retail sales? [It’s 10% today.] Is it unreasonable to think online gaming could be 30% of total gaming revenues?”
It’s a massive global market, despite the tight prohibitions on most online gaming in the United States. Chris recently recommended a player in the sector he thinks has long-term 100-bagger potential — turning a $10,000 investment into $1 million.
For access to all of Chris’ 100x recommendations — and a free copy of his book 100 Baggers — look here and enter the password “mayers100x.”
And then there’s the Illinois Lottery — which if it were a gaming investment would be circling the bowl.
In early September, we told you how the Prairie State hasn’t had a budget since July 1. The governor and legislature can’t come to terms. As such, the state comptroller began issuing IOUs to lottery winners whose prizes are $25,000 or greater.
Effective yesterday, that limit is down to only $600.
The state of Illinois has racked up $6 billion in unpaid bills… to say nothing of $100 billion in pension debt. Good times…
“Wow on your Medicare premium increase story,” a reader reacts to yesterday’s episode. “Maybe there is a downside to that file-and-suspend Social Security strategy everyone seems to think is such a good idea. Keep up the good work.”
The 5: Yes, people who did file-and-suspend will get hosed by the Medicare Part B premium increase.
Then there’s the wider issue of how much longer they’ll allow file-and-suspend. Back in the spring, we suggested it might go on the chopping block whenever the next president gets around to naming a “blue ribbon panel” to shore up Social Security’s finances.
Oy… No wonder we’re so keen on piggybacking the Canada Pension Plan.
“For more information that may tell it like it is, I offer the following,” writes an armchair geostrategist after we unpacked the state of play with the Russians, the Arabs and oil.
“Back in June or early July, Putin invited the king of Saudi Arabia to Moscow to discuss a very important deal. That was followed a week later by the president of Iran coming to Moscow to sign onto the deal. Our media covered none of this. No one knows exactly what the deal encompassed, but a conclusion can now easily be seen.
“Putin, for his part, had to prop up the Assad regime in Syria and eradicate ISIS. By doing so, he would be putting the end to the hated ‘Arab Spring’ and bringing back stability to the Mideast.
“So what does Putin get in exchange? Russia has been invited by the Saudi minister to OPEC to join OPEC as a ‘non-OPEC member.’ They will have pre-meetings with the Russian energy minister before the December OPEC meeting in Vienna. The Saudi minister to OPEC has stated that the time has come to ‘crimp our oil investments,’ which probably means they are ready to resume quotas, which will reduce production for all OPEC members and Russia.
“This obviously will cause crude prices to rise. Russia’s economy is based on high crude prices to pay for all the social programs as well as military needs, etc. Thus, the Russian economy takes off, European trade with Russia expands, sanctions are negated and Time declares Putin the man of the year.
“And oh, by the way, the Saudi king visited Obama a couple of weeks ago and was grandly entertained. The result of his visit: A week later, Obama stated that he would veto the ‘repeal the ban on crude exports’ bill. OPEC does not want U.S. crude competing with them in world markets! What a nice buddy Obama is to the king of Saudi Arabia! Now you know the rest of the story.”
“Your take on why boomers have been successful is a bit off base,” a reader chimes in on our millionaire-next-door discussion.
“I am clearly an early boomer (1946). In 2002, I underwent a therapy regimen for lymphoma, was subsequently terminated by my employer of nine years and found myself out of work. My choice was to pray, look at what I knew and look for opportunities to put what I knew to work. I never once even thought about turning to government or other sources for handouts, pleading my cause as a victim.
“Today, I run a company that employs about 150 folks, does about $25 million in annual revenue and by all standards is a success.
“I think my achieving millionaire status (not that is terribly moving to me) had nothing whatsoever to do with luck (by any measure — when it all started, my ‘luck’ was all bad), nor did it have to with longevity (this is in the last 12 years). Rather, it had to do with a disposition of hard work and a large dose of the grace of God. As the saying goes, luck is the meeting of preparation and opportunity.”
The 5: Good for you — it’s an inspiring story. Especially since your success has come in the last decade, when it’s been harder than ever!
Have a good weekend,
Dave Gonigam
The 5 Min. Forecast
P.S. Would “B-Dud” just shut the hell up?
From a CNBC story: “The market got a nudge [yesterday] from a comment by New York Fed President Bill Dudley, who said he would favor a rate hike this year, but it depends on the strength of the economy. He then added that recent data indicate the economy is slowing.”
Sheesh. As recently as Sept. 28, Dudley said, “My expectation is that we will raise interest rates later this year.”
A week ago today, though, he dialed that back to, “We’re going to get a lot of data between now and December, so it’s not a commitment.”
But the market hangs on every speech of Dudley’s, and Stanley Fischer’s and Janet Yellen’s.
Nearly a year ago, our Jim Rickards said the Fed wouldn’t raise rates this year. But how did he know?
He was relying in part on the “indications and warnings” of the sort used by the U.S. intelligence community. And you can put those indications and warnings to work for fast gains… as you’ll learn at this link.
